FORECASTING FIRES IN FUEL AND LUBRICANTS WAREHOUSES: REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF INFLUENCE FACTORS
Annotation
Fires at fuel and lubricants storage facilities pose a serious threat to safety and the environment due to the high degree of flammability of these materials, which underlines the importance of controlling their possible occurrence.
The study focuses on the analysis of factors contributing to the occurrence of fires at the fuel depot of the Vostochny section in Ekibastuz. A comparative analysis of two groups of potential causes of fires was carried out using the STATISTICA software package. The first group includes meteorological conditions, the second - emergency situations such as static electricity discharge, diesel fuel leakage, mechanical damage and lightning discharge. Additionally, a comparative analysis was carried out, including multiple correlation, checking for the level of significance, analyzing the histogram of residues, checking for the normality of the distribution of residues, as well as plotting predicted values and residues.
The result of the analysis is a regression equation that allows us to estimate the relationship between factors and the number of fires. It is noted that static electricity discharge, diesel fuel leakage, mechanical damage and lightning discharge have the greatest impact on the possibility of a fire. These factors should be taken into account when developing measures to prevent fires in a fuel warehouse. The regression equation will make it possible to predict the probability of fires based on the values of independent variables, which will ensure more effective planning and management of fire risks.
Author
Abzhanova A.S.
Kotov E.S.
DOI
https://doi.org/10.48081/FKPV7337
Keywords
fuels and lubricants
forecasting
regression analysis
meteorological conditions
risk management
facility safety
occurrence of fires
Year
2024
Номер
Issue 2
658
1
For citation:
Abzhanova A.S., Kotov E.S. FORECASTING FIRES IN FUEL AND LUBRICANTS WAREHOUSES: REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF INFLUENCE FACTORS // Scientific journal "Science and Technology of Kazakhstan". - 2024 - №2 - С. 273 – 284. https://doi.org/10.48081/FKPV7337
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